Preview: UFC Des Moines Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

Gillian Robertson (15-8, 12-6 UFC) vs. Marina Rodriguez (17-5-2, 7-5-2 UFC)

ODDS: Robertson (-325), Rodriguez (+260)

It has taken a bit longer than some might have expected, but Robertson could be on the verge of a breakthrough win. There were a few raw prospects on the flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2017, and “The Savage” had a case as the most interesting among them. At the very least, she had some clear skills to fall back on as a particularly vicious submission artist. That allowed Robertson to rack up some impressive highlights, but getting to her best weapons could often be a bit of an adventure. She wasn’t the type of physical standout who could consistently play bully, and despite some obvious attempts to improve her striking, she was often uncomfortable on the feet and could get thrown out of her game once things started to head south. Robertson hit a ceiling enough that she decided to cut down to strawweight in 2023, which seemed like an interesting gambit that could heighten both her strengths and her weaknesses. She would become even more of a terror on the mat but could also find herself fighting uphill against much quicker and sharper fighters. It took a bit of adjustment, but things might finally have clicked. Robertson is now much more comfortable chaining things together and using her striking as a means to an end, continuing to pressure forward and attempting to maul her opponents even in the face of absorbing some hard offense. Robertson just needs that one big win as a proof of concept at strawweight, and Marina makes for an interesting next challenge as the Brazilian looks to reverse a recent skid. While Robertson was struggling to put things together, Rodriguez was finding plenty of success with a game that seemed more than the sum of its parts. Rodriguez is solid enough as a volume-heavy striker, but as neither a standout athlete nor a particularly strong fighter on the mat, it seemed surprising that she kept coasting out win after win until she was on the verge of a title shot. Whether it’s age or the rest of the strawweight division starting to figure out the scouting report, Rodriguez has now lost four of her last five. There are few blowouts, but opponents now seem more willing than ever to march forward and impose some physicality on Rodriguez, taking away her ability to win fights on the margins. If Robertson keeps up her recent form, she seems like another opponent capable of following that path to victory. The pick is Robertson via third-round submission.

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