Preview: UFC 315 ‘Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena’

Women’s Flyweights

Natalia Silva (18-5-1, 6-0 UFC) vs. Alexa Grasso (16-4-1, 8-4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Silva (-238), Grasso (+195)

Grasso’s post-championship rebound starts now. Her ascent to flyweight champion started with a lot of frustration, at least at the UFC level. Upon signing with the UFC in 2016, the expectation was that Grasso—then a top strawweight prospect—would be able to carve out a niche as one of the faces of the promotion’s expansion into Mexico. However, her career at 115 pounds often saw her take one step forward and two steps back. She suffered a surprising loss to Felice Herrig in just her second UFC bout, and from there, she would consistently hit a clear ceiling against any sort of dedicated wrestler. Those struggles made it a bit of a surprise when she announced that she was moving up in weight, but apparently her weight cuts were particularly tough, as she was surprisingly able to hold her own strength-wise against larger competition. Once she was able to show effectiveness against a horse of an athlete in Maycee Barber in just her second flyweight fight, it seemed like a safe bet that Grasso would be able to hold her own in terms of physicality going forward. Given that, it wasn’t necessarily a shock that Grasso wound up ascending to a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko in 2023. However, her win was particularly stunning. Grasso got outwrestled in what was shaping up to be a game effort in a loss, only for a Shevchenko spinning kick to go awry and present her with the opportunity to lock on a fight-ending rear-naked choke. That proved to be the high point for Grasso in terms of the eventual trilogy against Shevchenko. A rematch was close enough to deservedly end in a draw, while the third bout was a particularly poor performance from Grasso, who had little answer for Shevchenko’s refocused wrestling-heavy attack. That showing has Grasso’s stock at a bit of a low point, but she will need to regroup quickly since Silva is a difficult bounce-back opponent.

Silva fought a weak level of regional competition that made it hard to parse her skills, so it was a bit of a shock when she showed up in excellent form to dominate Jasmine Jasudavicius in her 2022 UFC debut. Regional footage didn’t do Silva’s speed justice. She has a case as the quickest flyweight on the roster—something that can cover for a lot of her mistakes. There have been a considerable amount at times, as she decided to wrestle with the much stronger Tereza Bleda—she eventually scored a knockout anyway—and her game generally has a lot of gaps where she throws out wild offense without much of a thought of what’s coming back. While opponents like Viviane Araujo and Jessica Andrade found a bit more success against Silva as the Brazilian has moved her way up the ladder, it has been difficult for anyone to track her down enough for that to matter. Grasso might be the point where Silva’s flaws start to come back and hurt her a bit. Grasso might not have the foot speed to keep up with Silva, but she’s quick enough with her hands that she should be able to land the harder counters whenever the Brazilian decides to close ranks to try and land offense. Should Silva get out over her skis a bit, Grasso is probably the best-equipped opponent yet to try and grind out a win in the clinch, and the former champion might be able to get this over the finish line, even if it’s still likely to be an ugly fight and a close call. Grasso’s apparent lack of adjustment and game planning over the course of the Shevchenko trilogy does raise some concerns as to where she stands, but Silva also does not seem like the most strategic fighter. The pick is Grasso via decision.

Jump To »
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Shevchenko vs. Fiorot
Aldo vs. Zahabi
Silva vs. Grasso
St. Denis vs. Prepolec
The Prelims