Fight OddsPrime Picks: UFC Baku ‘Hill vs. Rountree’
The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday
takes to a country
not yet ready for prime time but willing to throw millions of
dollars for the company to post up. Inside of the Baku Crystal
Arena in Azerbaijan’s capital, locals will be treated to not the
first but the second major event within its confines; Rizin Fighting Federation got there first. With
no Azerbaijani in the headliner, focus shifts to the rest of the
main card, where three athletes born in the Asian European country
will ply their trades. The
UFC Baku edition of Prime Picks gives it up for those three
nearby competitors while also suggesting a pair of stoppages to end
the night well.
Fists are about to go boop in this light heavyweight headliner. Its violence potential is why this is the second 205-pound contest serving as a UFC headliner in 2025; Magomed Ankalaev-Alex Pereira was the first. Here, the organization brings together two athletes with penchants for punching people in the face and pits them against one another in a logical, well-made main event. Much can be said about the matchmaking of late, but this is a fine fight and one that should not last terribly long.
When it comes to the under, it helps that both men hold a majority
of their pro victories by knockout and also happen to have suffered
most of their defeats by strikes. Past success and results do not
guarantee the future, but they do paint an athlete’s profile to
show his propensities, weaknesses, strengths and plenty more. Of
the two, Hill is the wilder, looser striker, while Rountree is a
composed Tiger Muay Thai-trained sniper capable of doing massive
damage to one specific spot from repeated attacks. It could look
like when Rountree was thrown to his back and had his chin checked
by Ion
Cutelaba or like when Hill walked Pereira down and got blown
away for it. What does not matter for this bet is the victor, as
long as they swing for the fences and someone drops.
A couple of close slugfest losses to Justin Gaethje and a busted knee against Mateusz Gamrot, and suddenly the betting populace is over the chief instructor at Tiger Muay Thai. Bludgeoning Rafael dos Anjos and icing Brad Riddell are things of the past, because the sport is ever the “what have you done for me lately” cruel mistress. After dropping three straight, the Kazakhstan-born Azerbaijani gets a welcome step back in competition in the form of kickfighter Ignacio Bahamondes. Even with “La Jaula” landing a few unexpected submissions of late, this is still the kind of clash where nearly everything happens on the feet. Unless he has lost a massive step, Fiziev should still be able to maneuver through the four-inch reach disadvantage he encounters while punching up to hit his target.
Even with Blaydes out of Prime Picks individual moneyline territory at -240, ignore him at your own peril. There is a very clear path to beating “Razor,” one with a strategy that consists of walking him down and punching him in the face until he falls down. He is quite susceptible to quick blitzes, and his beard is not going to improve as he takes more damage and grows older. At 34, Blaydes is still a young man with upwards of a decade left in the heavyweight class, and it is remarkable how his schedule went from taking on Tom Aspinall for an interim throne to facing an unranked UFC newcomer. Rizvan Kuniev holds a small bit of hype, but he has no experience against an opponent above the level of a 44-year-old Anthony Hamilton or a steroid-assisted win against Renan Ferreira wiped out when melting the cup at the post-fight drug test. With little fear of Kuniev plunking Blaydes early, this is the kind of fight that should have Blaydes at -500 or higher. This should be the anchor to many good accumulators on this lineup.
For how many takedowns he has landed—62, a heavyweight record and twice the number of the next closest active fighter—it is quite remarkable that Blaydes’ career takedown accurate rate sits over 50%. One would assume that the high number of times he has grounded a foe would correspond to a lower rate of success, but if every other time Blaydes tries, he puts someone on their back, Kuniev has every right to be concerned. The pairing has fallen through on multiple occasions, and yet Blaydes has drifted into more reasonable betting territory. The line on Blaydes getting a stoppage allows for a career-first club-and-sub should he get tired of beating on the Russian once he inevitably grounds him.
In one of the more lucrative parlays we have run since retooling the Prime Picks series, we go out on multiple limbs this time. While true that only a fraction of our parlays actually hit, for a sport as volatile as MMA, we expect a corresponding success rate despite our confidence in X, Y and Z result all playing out on fight night. We like to paint avenues for success, how any certain fighter with plus money at his name could pull off an upset, what would it look like. Has it happened before on the other end or are we suggesting something new like Court McGee getting submitted? Spoiler alert, he was not. Considering parlays are where the book makes the most money, your participation and enthusiasm may vary.
Having already given a full-throated endorsement in the skills of Fiziev, we can skip right past the most famous Azerbaijani fighter and link to two more. It is an accumulator with an angle, a parlay with a plan. In light of the organization traveling to its first new country in about three years, a certain pattern has emerged. The last three events in which the UFC has debuted in a different nation, all fighters born in the host country have prevailed. This even includes the five French fighters at the UFC card capped of by Ciryl Gane-Tai Tuivasa. It should be noted that the lines were generally more lopsided than one heavy favorite and two light underdogs, but until we see otherwise, the UFC appears to intentionally be making winnable fights for home countries—and for good reason. It gives the locals something to cheer about, rather than bombarding them with 17 fighters from neighboring countries where someone in Azerbaijan could take or leave.
It is about time that the UFC wrangled up Musayev. Word broke earlier today that the promotion also picked up a couple champs from KSW, so it is promising that the UFC is seeking the best again. With that said, the latest season of Dana White’s Contender Series will be revving up soon, which is scraping the barrel when the likes of Yuri Panferov and Ivan Gnizditskiy are a victory away from getting signed. Musayev and Sadykhov are of a similar mindset: Strike first, and think about it later. The latter has been involved in winning multiple thrillers since joining the promotion in 2023, and Musayev only falls to Top 20 talent this decade. It might be white-knuckling as the main card rolls on, but keep the faith for those from Azerbaijan and one could quintuple his stake.
Jamahal Hill-Khalil Rountree Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Fists are about to go boop in this light heavyweight headliner. Its violence potential is why this is the second 205-pound contest serving as a UFC headliner in 2025; Magomed Ankalaev-Alex Pereira was the first. Here, the organization brings together two athletes with penchants for punching people in the face and pits them against one another in a logical, well-made main event. Much can be said about the matchmaking of late, but this is a fine fight and one that should not last terribly long.
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Rafael Fiziev (+112)
A couple of close slugfest losses to Justin Gaethje and a busted knee against Mateusz Gamrot, and suddenly the betting populace is over the chief instructor at Tiger Muay Thai. Bludgeoning Rafael dos Anjos and icing Brad Riddell are things of the past, because the sport is ever the “what have you done for me lately” cruel mistress. After dropping three straight, the Kazakhstan-born Azerbaijani gets a welcome step back in competition in the form of kickfighter Ignacio Bahamondes. Even with “La Jaula” landing a few unexpected submissions of late, this is still the kind of clash where nearly everything happens on the feet. Unless he has lost a massive step, Fiziev should still be able to maneuver through the four-inch reach disadvantage he encounters while punching up to hit his target.
Bahamondes is coming into his own, winner of three straight
first-round stoppages, including a blistering head kick of Christos
Giagos. A more composed striker with underrated grappling chops
in Ludovit
Klein spoiled the Chilean’s run for the gold, but he makes
another with three consecutive “Performance of the Night” checks to
his name. The leg kicks will be the primary weapon for Bahamondes,
which might end up working against him if he finds that Fiziev is
checking him. Once Bahamondes gets in his rhythm, it can take a
concussive blow to dislodge him from that flow state. Luckily for
Fiziev, the switch hitter can hurt people out of both hands and
will welcome anything Bahamondes throws at him. Unless Fiziev falls
into a trap of just doing enough to get by, it should be go for
“Ataman” at plus money.
Curtis Blaydes Wins Inside Distance (+125)
Even with Blaydes out of Prime Picks individual moneyline territory at -240, ignore him at your own peril. There is a very clear path to beating “Razor,” one with a strategy that consists of walking him down and punching him in the face until he falls down. He is quite susceptible to quick blitzes, and his beard is not going to improve as he takes more damage and grows older. At 34, Blaydes is still a young man with upwards of a decade left in the heavyweight class, and it is remarkable how his schedule went from taking on Tom Aspinall for an interim throne to facing an unranked UFC newcomer. Rizvan Kuniev holds a small bit of hype, but he has no experience against an opponent above the level of a 44-year-old Anthony Hamilton or a steroid-assisted win against Renan Ferreira wiped out when melting the cup at the post-fight drug test. With little fear of Kuniev plunking Blaydes early, this is the kind of fight that should have Blaydes at -500 or higher. This should be the anchor to many good accumulators on this lineup.
For how many takedowns he has landed—62, a heavyweight record and twice the number of the next closest active fighter—it is quite remarkable that Blaydes’ career takedown accurate rate sits over 50%. One would assume that the high number of times he has grounded a foe would correspond to a lower rate of success, but if every other time Blaydes tries, he puts someone on their back, Kuniev has every right to be concerned. The pairing has fallen through on multiple occasions, and yet Blaydes has drifted into more reasonable betting territory. The line on Blaydes getting a stoppage allows for a career-first club-and-sub should he get tired of beating on the Russian once he inevitably grounds him.
AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION
Fiziev (+112)
Tofiq Musayev (+135)
Nazim Sadykhov (-470)
Total Odds: +504
In one of the more lucrative parlays we have run since retooling the Prime Picks series, we go out on multiple limbs this time. While true that only a fraction of our parlays actually hit, for a sport as volatile as MMA, we expect a corresponding success rate despite our confidence in X, Y and Z result all playing out on fight night. We like to paint avenues for success, how any certain fighter with plus money at his name could pull off an upset, what would it look like. Has it happened before on the other end or are we suggesting something new like Court McGee getting submitted? Spoiler alert, he was not. Considering parlays are where the book makes the most money, your participation and enthusiasm may vary.
Having already given a full-throated endorsement in the skills of Fiziev, we can skip right past the most famous Azerbaijani fighter and link to two more. It is an accumulator with an angle, a parlay with a plan. In light of the organization traveling to its first new country in about three years, a certain pattern has emerged. The last three events in which the UFC has debuted in a different nation, all fighters born in the host country have prevailed. This even includes the five French fighters at the UFC card capped of by Ciryl Gane-Tai Tuivasa. It should be noted that the lines were generally more lopsided than one heavy favorite and two light underdogs, but until we see otherwise, the UFC appears to intentionally be making winnable fights for home countries—and for good reason. It gives the locals something to cheer about, rather than bombarding them with 17 fighters from neighboring countries where someone in Azerbaijan could take or leave.
It is about time that the UFC wrangled up Musayev. Word broke earlier today that the promotion also picked up a couple champs from KSW, so it is promising that the UFC is seeking the best again. With that said, the latest season of Dana White’s Contender Series will be revving up soon, which is scraping the barrel when the likes of Yuri Panferov and Ivan Gnizditskiy are a victory away from getting signed. Musayev and Sadykhov are of a similar mindset: Strike first, and think about it later. The latter has been involved in winning multiple thrillers since joining the promotion in 2023, and Musayev only falls to Top 20 talent this decade. It might be white-knuckling as the main card rolls on, but keep the faith for those from Azerbaijan and one could quintuple his stake.
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